ASPC: Aberdeen’s property values see 0.6 per cent drop in Q3
Aberdeen house prices fell by 0.6 per cent in the most recent quarter, with a more significant annual drop of 4.4 per cent, according to the Aberdeen Solicitors’ Property Centre (ASPC).
Over a five-year period, however, the ASPC report for Q3 2023, created with the University of Aberdeen, Business School, Centre for Real Estate Research, shows that Aberdeen has seen an annualised increase of 0.4 per cent in house prices.
John MacRae, chairman of the ASPC board of directors, noted the slight regression in the third quarter is in line with expectations given the current economic climate, where both global and local factors impact consumer confidence.
He said: “Since 2008, there have been various adverse influences affecting consumer confidence. Some of those factors are national – even worldwide – but there are also factors more localised in their effect.
“The banking crash, covid and a rise in interest rates and the cost of living, are examples of national factors. The effect of oil price fluctuations are more keenly felt in the North – East. On top of all that, there is a growing urgency around dealing with climate change.”
Mr MacRae continued: “The general effect of all that has been to lead to fluctuations in market activity, unrelated to the expected seasonal variations. Downsizing by some major oil companies in the North Sea, together with rising concern regarding emissions, have all affected confidence in the future scale of exploration and production, in the North Sea.
“Despite these varied factors, our local market had been making steady, if moderate progress, after the pandemic. There had been gradual improvement in levels of activity and price, in most areas.”
He added: “Although modest in scale, the persistence of these improvements had given rise to some hope that our area was getting there. We did have one quarter (3rd quarter 2022) when all three price indicators were positive.
“In that same quarter, the relationship between activity and mark up, rose above 1.0, meaning that properties were selling for something around, even over, asking price.
“Since then, we have had to adjust to comparatively high interest rates, a surge in the cost of living index and a consequent reappraisal of the cost of borrowing. Given all that, our local market is showing a surprising degree of health. It is by no means as fit as a fiddle, but it is hanging in there.”
He concluded: “The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee have recently decided that the base rate will remain unchanged, meantime. Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank has said he expects inflation to return to prior levels over the next 2 years, approximately. All of this should allow us to feel a little more confident.
“Despite the sluggish housing market, we are still seeing sales and insertions holding up reasonably well. We can expect seasonal factors to have a further effect in the next 2 quarters, but I am expecting matters to improve, slowly, after that.”