RICS: Housing market expectations improve but sales in short supply
November saw both lower demand and supply in the Scottish property market according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market.
Taking a look at demand through November, a net balance of -17 per cent of respondents in Scotland noted a fall in new buyer enquiries. Although remaining in negative territory, this figure is up from -20 per cent and -35 per cent in the two previous surveys.
Regarding supply, surveyors report that new instructions fell at the fastest rate since summer, with a net balance of -25 per cent of Scottish respondents noting a fall in new instructions to sell.
With both demand and supply on downward trajectories sales were also said to have declined in November. A net balance of -42 per cent of respondents in Scotland reported a fall. Scottish respondents also noted a fall in prices over the past three months, with the headline price balance now at -7 per cent of respondents. This is compared to the UK average of -43 per cent.
Regarding the outlook, a net balance of -6 per cent of Scottish surveyors expect a fall in prices over the next quarter, and sales are anticipated to fall flat over the same period.
However, 12-month expectations for both prices and sales improved. A net balance of +22 per cent of respondents in Scotland expects prices to be higher in a year’s time and a net balance of +10 per cent expects the number of sales to be higher in 12 months. Comments from surveyors point to easing mortgage rates as a factor in the improved outlook.
RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, added: “The latest RICS Residential Market Survey provides further evidence that sentiment is a little less negative than previously was the case with, critically, the new buyers enquiries indicator finally beginning to stabilise. This is being aided by increased confidence that the interest rate cycle has peaked which is reflected in somewhat more competitive mortgage products coming to the market.
“However, with the cost of money likely to remain elevated for some time to come and the economic outlook still downbeat, it is not surprising that the overall tone to the anecdotal remarks from survey respondents is still quite cautious.”